Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
